By David Feddes

 

Rationality

System 1 is impulsive and intuitive; System 2 is capable of reasoning, and it is cautious, but at least for some people it is also lazy. (Daniel Kahneman)

  • Intelligence is mere brain power.
  • Rationality works to avoid cognitive biases and to think carefully.


Sources for this presentation

  • Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
  • Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly


Two kinds
 of knowledge

  • Real knowledge: those who think deeply and pursue understanding
  • Chauffeur knowledge: those who put on a show (celebrity CEO, news anchor, star preacher)


Intuition

  • Marvels: Intuition (System 1) often know things instantly and adequately.
  • Biases: Sometimes intuition jumps to false conclusions and prompts bad decisions.


Ease or Strain

  • Cognitive ease: good mood, like what you see, believe what you hear, trust intuition, comfortably familiar. BUT casual and superficial in your thinking.
  • Cognitive strain: vigilant, suspicious, more effort, less comfortable, fewer errors, BUT less creative or intuitive.


Heuristics (Greek: Eureka! I found it!)

  • A heuristic is a mental shortcut to deal with a hard question.
  • Intuition uses various heuristics to provide quick, simple answers.
  • These are often adequate, but sometimes flawed and misleading.

 

Instant answers

You are rarely stumped… The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way… you often have answers to questions that you do not completely understand, relying on evidence you can neither explain nor defend... If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier to answer and will answer it… When called upon to judge probability, people actually judge something else and believe they have judged probability. (Daniel Kahneman)


Substitution

  • Hard question: Which person would be the best to hire for this position?
  • Easier question: Who makes the best impression during a job interview?
  • Hard question: What did this Bible passage mean in its original context?
  • Easier question: What comes to mind right away when I read this passage?
  • Hard question: What is my overall impact on my church and community?
  • Easier question: What is my mood based on a recent compliment or criticism?


Affect bias (feeling)

Mental shortcut based on instant like or dislike: “I think” = “I feel”

  • Sunshine helps stock markets
  • “Going with your gut”
  • If you like something, risks look smaller and benefits look larger.


Endorser of emotions

System 2 is more of an apologist for the emotions of System 1 than a critic of those emotions—an endorser rather than an enforcer. Its search for information and arguments is mostly constrained to information that is consistent with existing beliefs, not with an intention to examine them. (Kahneman)


Association bias

Sensing connections where none exist, rooted in emotional response

  • Investor with beginner’s luck
  • Wanting product in TV ads featuring models & athletes
  • Bad news triggers dislike, so “shoot the messenger”


Risk factors

What causes more deaths?

  • Accident or stroke
  • Tornadoes or asthma
  • Accident or diabetes


Risk factors

  • Strokes kill 2x more than car accidents, but 80% of people said accidents kill more.
  • Asthma kills 20x more than tornadoes, but most think tornadoes kill more.
  • Diabetes kills 4x more than accidents, but accidents were thought 300x more likely than diabetes to cause death.


Availability bias

  • You map reality using examples that come most easily to mind: dramatic news, experiences, vivid pictures
  • WYSIATI: what you see is all there is.
  • You don’t know what you don’t know.
  • Availability cascade: report of isolated event, broad panic, government action


Story bias (also called narrative bias)

  • Tendency to shape information into a story or pattern that makes sense
  • Mind seeks consistent, colorful, simple story, not messy complexity
  • Stories often invent details without evidence; discard details that have evidence but don’t fit story.

The mind—especially System 1—appears to have a special aptitude for the construction and interpretation of stories about active agents, who have personalities, habits, and abilities... The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little... Declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.  (Daniel Kahneman)

 

Framing

Same meaning stated in different ways is received in different ways

  • Stock plunge = “correction”
  • Problem = “challenge”
  • “98% fat free” is rated healthier than 2% fat—or 1% fat!
  • Used car = “certified pre-owned”
  • Firing = “downsizing”
  • Killing babies = “termination,” “choice,” “reproductive freedom”


What do you think?

  • Alan: intelligent, industrious, impulsive, critical, stubborn, envious
  • Ben: envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive, industrious, intelligent


Halo effect

  • One aspect triggers feeling, dominates how we see the whole picture
  • Students rated photos. Faces rated as “more competent” (= confident smile, strong chin) won 70% of elections.
  • Actual leadership is unrelated to strength of chin or quality of smile

Samuel saw Eliab and thought, “Surely the LORD’s anointed stands here before the LORD.” But the LORD said to Samuel, “Do not consider his appearance or his height, for I have rejected him. The LORD does not look at the things man looks at. Man looks at the outward appearance, but the LORD looks at the heart.” (1 Sam 16:6-7)


Halo effect

  • First essay on test affects grading of other essays
  • First to speak in meeting sets tone
  • First impression of person sticks
  • View of Christ or church shaped by feelings about one member


How old was Gandhi?

  • Was Gandhi more than 35 years old when he died?
  • How old was Gandhi when he died?

How old was Gandhi?

  • Was Gandhi more than 114 years old when he died?
  • How old was Gandhi when he died?


Anchoring bias

When people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity… the estimates stay close to the number that people considered. (Daniel Kahneman)

  • Asking price of a house
  • Suggested retail price in store
  • “Limit: 12 cans per person” sold 2x more than unlimited sale
  • Size of charitable donation
  • “Mainstream” theology, ethics


Familiarity bias

Anchored by what you’ve heard before

“A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.” (Daniel Kahneman)


Question your shortcuts

  • Substitution: What’s the question?
  • Emotion: Am I thinking or feeling?
  • Availability: What have I overlooked?
  • Story: Does my story distort reality?
  • Framing: Is wording impacting me?
  • Halo: Is one thing coloring everything?
  • Anchoring: Is suggestion fact-based?


When to think hard

  • If a belief or decision is minor, go with intuition. Don’t think too hard.
  • If a belief or decision could have important, long-term impact, put time and effort into hard thinking.


Decision fatigue

Thinking and deciding take energy. Errors grow when weary & hungry.

  • Judges grant early release far more often shortly after mealtime.
  • Ads impact depleted people most.
  • Be refreshed and well fed before hard thinking and big decisions.


Smug slug

  • Don’t be a slug. Think harder.
  • Don’t be smug. Think humbler.

 

Modifié le: vendredi 24 juillet 2020, 13:45