Slides: Business as Usual (James 4:13-5:6)

¹³ Now listen, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.”¹⁴ Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes.¹⁵ Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord's will, we will live and do this or that.” ¹⁶ As it is, you boast and brag. All such boasting is evil. ¹⁷ Anyone, then, who knows the good he ought to do and doesn’t do it, sins.

Business as usual

• I control the future. I know what will happen. I plan it. I make it happen.
• I care about me. I trust wealth. I love luxury. I use and abuse others.
• God doesn’t matter. I’m not in the last days. I won’t answer to God.

Business plan

• Short-term plan: “today or tomorrow…”
• Long-term plan: “spend a year there”
• Location: “such and such a town”
• Goal: “trade and make a profit”

The problem isn’t what’s in the plan, but Who is left out. God is ignored.

Plan vs. reality

• Scottish Parliament building estimate: £40 million; final cost: £431 million
• Rail projects worldwide cost 45% more than estimated; estimates of passenger use were 106% greater than actual use
• Americans remodeling kitchens spend more than double what they plan.

Planning bias

Expecting things to go as planned

• Ignoring you own track record
• Ignoring factors outside plan

Humbler, more realistic planning

• Consider others’ similar projects
• Imagine disaster; describe it.

Plans disrupted

• Your trip could be canceled.
• Your business could fail.
• There could be disease, riots, war, or economic ruin.
• You could die this year.
• Jesus could return soon.

Planning bias

The heart of man plans his way, but the Lord establishes his steps. (Proverbs 16:9)

Many are the plans in the mind of a man, but it is the purpose of the Lord that will stand. (Prov 19:21)

Control Bias

• Thinking we control things that we really can’t control
• Keeping giraffes away
• Traffic, elevator “placebo buttons”
• Doctors, economists, politicians insist on “doing something”

Control Bias

People roll dice harder if they want a high number. They roll dice softly if they want a lower number.

The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the LORD. (Proverbs 16:33)

Forecast illusion

• Annual survey asked chief financial officers of corporations to estimate S&P index returns for the next year
• 11,600 forecasts had < 0 correlation with value of S&P a year later
• Expert forecasts were worthless—but they still didn’t know it.

Forecast illusion

“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” (J. K. Galbraith)

• Economists, epidemiologists
• Climate scientists, tech futurists
• Date setters for Jesus’ return

Forecast illusion

You do not even know what will happen tomorrow. (James 4:14)

Do not boast about tomorrow, for you do not know what a day may bring. (Proverbs 27:1)

Mist vanishing

What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. (James 4:14)

What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. (4:14)

A big IF

¹⁵ Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.” ¹⁶ As it is, you boast and brag. All such boasting is evil.¹⁷ Anyone, then, who knows the good he ought to do and doesn’t do it, sins.

No more bragging

• You don’t know if you’ll be alive tomorrow or what you’ll be able to do.
• You don’t know God’s plans for your future. You can’t find out in advance.
• Your plans are always subject to God’s plan. You must entrust yourself to his plan without knowing it exactly.

Business as usual

• I control the future. I know what will happen. I plan it. I make it happen.
• I care about me. I trust wealth. I love luxury. I use and abuse others.
• God doesn’t matter. I’m not in the last days. I won’t answer to God.

^5:1 Now listen, you rich people, weep and wail because of the misery that is coming upon you. ² Your wealth has rotted, and moths have eaten your clothes. ³ Your gold and silver are corroded. Their corrosion will testify against you and eat your flesh like fire. You have hoarded wealth in the last days.⁴ Look! The wages you failed to pay the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty.⁵ You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves in the day of slaughter. ⁶ You have condemned and murdered innocent men, who were not opposing you.

What causes poverty?

• Personal faults: Poor people cause their own poverty by being wicked, foolish, lazy, drunken, wasteful, or careless.
• Social injustice: Rich people rig the system, discriminate, oppress, exploit, defraud, and make others poor.

Filthy rich

• Selfishly hoarding money
• Cheating workers of wages
• Spending lavishly on self
• Misusing legal system and killing poor, innocent people

Coming judgment

• Weeping, wailing, and misery
• Wasting away of wealth
• Shame and fiery torment
• Wrath of the Lord Almighty
• Slaughter of fat cows who ignore Jesus’ two comings

Wealthy will weep

Woe to you who are rich, for you have already received your comfort. Woe to you who are well fed now, for you will go hungry. Woe to you who laugh now, for you will mourn and weep. (Luke 6:24-25)

Business as usual

• I control the future. I know what will happen. I plan it. I make it happen.
• I care about me. I trust wealth. I love luxury. I use and abuse others.
• God doesn’t matter. I’m not in the last days. I won’t answer to God.

No more business as usual

• God controls the future. He decides what will happen. I depend on him.
• I care about others. I will be fair and generous. I will love, not use people.
• God matters most. I’m in the last days. I will answer to Jesus.