Video Transcript: Causal Fallacy, Fallacy of Sunk Costs and Appeal to Authority

Henry - So we're back. And we're gonna dive right into the causal fallacy. What  is the causal fallacy? 

Dr. Clouser - assuming that you know the cause of an event, when you don't,  you can, you can claim that X causes Y. But unless you have evidence that it  did, it's a fallacy, right? It more often takes the form of saying, Will X happen,  and then that was followed by y. So x must be the cause of y. Another version of  

the same thing, just because something comes after another event, doesn't  mean the one that it came after caused it, there could be a lot of other events  that actually produce it, that took place at the same time as the one I thought  was the cause, but wasn't. So that's called ex hoc ergo Propter, hoc, though,  post hoc, ergo Propter, hoc, after this, because there'll be  

Henry - 84 years old and he's pulling this out of his mind. I see this in Ministry  and in the word diagnosing, where minister, or even a parent or something is  constantly creating causes that in fact, yeah, when I was sure that they're there,  that's right. You know, like, you know, it's really when your sister married that  guy, that she totally changed. Well, maybe she already changed and was  looking for that guy. She just didn't know that she had made that change. So but  to say that or blaming something, you know, sometimes motivated by ministry,  it's a fallacy that ministers and pastors can get into where they're diag, sort of  diagnosing. And this goes back to the listening skills, they suggest you do not  diagnose while you're listening, listen, clearly, for what's being said, not what  you think is being said.  

Dr. Clouser - And this would can become complicated as well, because in your  you touched on this, it may be that the cause of x are these five things, right.  And four of them, were already in place. And then when the person came in  contact with the fifth, that was sufficient to produce the effects, right. But it's not  the only cause of the effect all of them are, right. So it can become very  complicated, and you need to sort that stuff out carefully. We're gonna go to  attribute causes.  

Henry - we have our Christian Discernment class that's completed, and we  suggest at times to do a family systems diagram. Well, all that really does, is on  a whiteboard. If you're, if something's very sensitive, and you're trying to look for help. On a whiteboard, you ask, like 100 questions, any question you can think  of, like, what happens, Dr. Clouser is, all of a sudden, the pattern of what is the  cause starts showing up again, and again and again. And that's a helpful way to  work through it. But the causal fallacy is a snap causal fallacy is something that  experienced ministers to really be careful to we've seen so many different kinds 

of hasty generalization is another form of a hasty generalization. Okay, so let's  go on to the fallacy of sunk costs.  

Dr. Clouser - I think everybody's familiar with this. There's some project or a  belief, right? into which I've invested a lot, right? Right, invested in time, or I  spent a lot of my life with it. And so we've become reluctant to give up on it. See  that it's just hopeless, and not throw more time, more effort, more emotional  investment, more money, whatever it is. into the same hole, it's only going to be  an empty hole, never going to work. So it's mostly becoming emotionally  invested in something and reluctant to give it up even when it's clear that it's  false, or it's not going to work.  

Henry - Right. So it takes courage to go against this fallacy, because, I mean, I  think in the workplace, you know, like, it's something you're working on, or  working on some work on something. And then then it becomes clear to your  supervisor whatever your boss, you know what, we can't do it. And then the  boss says, we're going a different way. We're moving. We're moving this way  going different way. We're moving this way. And then the team members just feel so like, frustrated almost to the point where, you know, I put all this time into this  and now we're not going to do this. But there may be good reasons not to do it.  But I know as a leader, when you start something, we recently, we started a kind of ministry, social network, and Abby and Abbie and Mitch and all of us were  heavily invested in. And then, and we're wanting to do the mini courses that  we're doing right here, and play them on that network. And then it became clear  that the best place for these mini courses was not on a new network with a new  thing. But it was right here, next to our regular courses. Okay, so we had to stop. We were in this for three or four months, Abby and Abbie and Mitch learned how to code there'd be all these other stuff, which by the way, will not be lost. But But still, I remember, like, part of the thing was the the fallacy of sunk, sunk costs.  Like, we can't quit now we can't quit now.  

Dr. Clouser - And this has to be balanced against persistence. Yes, sometimes.  Persistence is good. So I was just thinking, Thomas Edison, when he tried to  invent the light bulb, needed something needed a material to make the filament  from. The filament would glow producing light if you ran a current through but  not burn out right away, right? He tried to over 700 Different things before he hit  the one that works. Somebody might have made this argument while you're  invested in this. Nope. He had good reasons to think that it would work.  

Henry - Well, in seeing that. I mean, CLI is an example of that for the first 15  years. I felt to me this was really, really hard deserve to work. So I guess there is discerment again, the discernment. But there is a fallacy the always check 

yourself, and even name. That's fine. To name somebody, at least in your mind.  Am I walking down the fallacy of sunk costs here? Or do I see something the  Lord still give me the urgency for persistence to keep on ongoing. appeal to  authority. 

Dr. Clouser - Yes. This is one we have to be very careful with. Because of the  fact is that for every one of us, we hold a great great many beliefs on authority.  Right? So just giving an example. I asked you if you'd ever been to Bombay, I  haven't either. But we both believe there is such a place, right. Why? Well, it's in  the Atlas, right? You open up the Atlas to India, and there's, there's Bombay the  airlines listed as a place they fly to. Right. There are lots of reasons, lots of  authorities that are genuine authorities, the airlines will be able to know where  their planes go. The people that make an atlas ought to know what the map of  India looks like. So this is not a fallacy. It's an appeal to a real authority. It's only  a fallacy when you feel something is an authority. That's not one, or you don't  have any good reason to think it is.  

Henry - Okay. One example.  

Dr. Clouser - Suppose I were to take a comic book that I've read and get through the story, and the story says that there are UFOs from outer space. Okay. And  they have visited with us from somewhere near Alpha Centauri or something?  And I say, wow, look at that. It's at least probable that we're being visited by  UFOs from Alpha Centauri. Right. It's a matter of, of the reasons you have for  thinking that something is an authority. Right. And we all have very good  reasons to think that authorities that there's such a place as Bombay or that the  Amazon is the biggest river in the world or whatever. There are all kinds of  things. We believe on authorities, but they're good authorities, and we know why they are  

Henry - lastly and you tell me if this is right, sometimes I noticed news stories.  They'll appeal to authorities which A we've never heard of. So first of all, trusting  that this person is an authority and they don't even say who that authority is. It  just seems like so and so said this. So and so said that. And I don't even know  what so and so said because they didn't say what so and so said, 

Dr. Clouser - it's very proper to call them on this and ask about their appeal to  authority. what grounds do we have for thinking that that person is an authority?  And maybe they can produce it? Maybe they can say, well, this person was on  the committee that considered this right evaded for a long time, and was one of  the people that voted for the policy. Alright, then that person ought to know what  was discussed. But if it's just well, he worked for the same company who did it. 

That doesn't count. Or for the people who did it, that doesn't have to work in the  same company in a different city, and have nothing to do with this and not know  anything about it. So it has to do with the evaluating the authorities themselves  as to whether they're genuine authorities.  

Henry - To our Christian faith, Yeah, we appeal to authority, right, our authority in Scripture. How is this? Not a fallacy?  

Dr. Clouser - It's because of the way we come to believe the biblical message.  Okay. And that is that as we read it, or hear it preached to us, or whatever it is, it is, in our experience, self evident, that the truth about God from God, it doesn't  mean that the record is perfect. No blemishes, nothing, nothing like that. But  what the biblical message, the art of redemption,  

Henry - the revelation  

Dr. Clouser - is preserved for us here, and nowhere else. And we find that, in our own experiences, self evident, it's truth is self evident. John Calvin put it this  way. If we're asked how do we know scripture comes from God? It's just same  as if we were asked, How do we tell light from dark black from white, sweet from bitter. Scripture bears on the face of it such evidence of its truth, as the white  and black of their color, sweet and bitter of their tastes. And if you'll indulge me  and give you a little more, those who attempt to build up a firm faith in Scripture  by argument, are doing things backwards in Scripture, Dane's not to submit itself to proofs and arguments, but owes the full confidence with which we should  have accept it to the testimony of the Spirit of God.  

Henry - Well, I don't know how we were done with that section. Thank you, Dr.  Clouser. Very welcome.